Why is Welker wearing #11?

He isn’t, that is just his incredible look-alike, Julian Edelman.  Edelman was drafted in the final round of the 2009 NFL draft and was an immediate hit in the New England area.  This isn’t because Edelman has done anything super extraordinary in his two years as a Patriot, but rather because he was so much like Brady’s top receiver, Wes Welker.  Like Welker, his vertical speed is nothing to brag about.  In exchange, however, Edelman is one of the fastest in the NFL when it comes to agility and making quick moves before and after the catch.  What makes Edelman so interesting, though, is not his Welker impression, but that he was not always a receiver. 

Attending high school in Woodside, California, Julian Edelman was the best in his division and probably his conference…in passing that is.  That’s right, number eleven used to be a quarterback for his high school, putting up incredible numbers in his career totaling 2,239 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air.  This production continued in college, where Edelman was the starting quarterback for three years at Kent State University.  In his senior year, Edelman amassed 1, 830 yards and 13 touchdowns in the passing game.  More impressive is that in the same year that he was the team’s leading passer; Edelman was the leading rusher as well, totaling 1, 370 yards and another 13 touchdowns on the ground.  Why is it then, that the Patriots drafted a quarterback in 2009 when they already had Tom Brady and would eventually go on to sign back-up Brian Hoyer as a free agent the same year? 

To compliment Welker, apparently.  During the 2009 season fans could often see heavy crossing patterns in which Welker and Edelman nearly intertwined in order to create havoc, lose coverage, and use their speed to create space between themselves and the defenders.  This was utterly successful until Welker went down with an ACL injury in the last game of the season against Houston.  While Welker was lost for the remainder of the season, Edelman took his place and proved to be very capable of being Brady’s slot receiver, taking many of the underneath passes and continuing to be undistinguishable from Welker.  While the Patriots did lose to the Ravens in the playoffs that season, Edelman was one of the few bright spots during that game.

Here, in 2011 however, the roster has changed and grown and the competition for the starting spots at wide receiver is intense.  We can probably place a high bet that Deion Branch, Wes Welker, and newly acquired receiver Chad Ochocinco are locks for the top three spots on the wide receiver roster.  That leaves Edelman and vertical threats Brandon Tate and Taylor Price to compete for the final two spots.  Many people are wondering what the Patriots offense will look like with so many weapons.  Well I have an idea.

Below is a diagram of the typical Patriots offense from the 2010 season.  The Patriots run what is called a “Vertical Philosophy” in that they throw passes to open up chances for the run and run to try and open up more lanes for the passing game.  Everything compliments one another.  For these diagrams I am using numbers to represent each player since it is the depth chart that I want to show here.  To verify, here are the players that each number represents:

84 – Deion Branch

87 – Rob Gronkowski

85 – Aaron Hernandez

83 – Wes Welker

12 – Tom Brady (obviously)

42 – BenJarvus Green-Ellis

84             O    O    C    O    O    87               83

                    12                          85

                                            42                                                      

This is a diagram of a football formation commonly known as “Singleback Double Tight Right”.  This set pertains to one “singleback” (42) and two tight ends (87 and 85).  So what can we expect the base offense to look like this year with so many new weapons?  There are a few options.

Option 1:  Singleback Split

In this set, one of the tight ends will be replaced with a third wide receiver.  I feel that this will be Wes Welker taking over in that spot while Ochocinco moves into the “83” spot above.  Since Welker is best in short passing patterns, this would be the best spot for him.  As a side note, Chad Ochocinco has purchased the number 85 from Aaron Hernandez and therefore, all diagrams that show 85 will show Ochocinco, not Hernandez.

                             84                    O    O    C    O    O    87               85

                                        83                      12 

                                                                  42           

                              
        

This is my guess as to what the prominent offense will look like while Gronkowski (87) and Hernandez (now 81) switching based on the situation.  As far as Edelman goes, though, he will be fighting for that fourth receiver spot when it comes time for opening day.  The package he really has to worry about looks more like this:

Option 2:  Shotgun Base Spread

84                  O    O    C    O    O                 85

   83                                          11

                      

          12    42

The “Shotgun Spread” is a pass-first offensive formation with four-wide receiver and one running back, usually kept for blocking or quick release passes while the four receivers go deep.  Edelman (11) will be fighting for that spot opposite of Welker as a second short pass option for Brady.

While I expect both Tate and Price to make the roster, I feel strongly that Edelman will be the one to claim the fourth receiver spot.  With this in mind, I do not expect Edelman to have any kind of a statistically significant year.  With a lot of strength at the tight end position and with six running backs on the current roster, Edelman will probably only be in when passing is absolutely necessary.  Other than that, expect Edelman to be returning many of the punts.  He has proved to be a dangerous weapon as a punt returner over the past two years.

Greg’s 2011 Prediction for Julian Edelman:

25 Receptions

210 Yards

0 Receiving Touchdowns

2 Punt Returns for Touchdowns

Projected Overall Grade: C+